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Masters of the Political Game in Nigeria
By Uche Nworah
Disclaimer:
The opinions expressed herein are by no means an
endorsement of the principles of the characters being
explored, this is only an unbiased analyses of the
political philosophies and strategies of the characters
from the standpoint of the ideologies of master
political and war strategists such as Carl von
Clausewitz, Niccolo Machiavelli and Sun Tzu.
The accompanying
photograph to this article which depicts a much younger
Olusegun Obasanjo (OBJ) and
Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) playing a game of draught,
with Danjuma and Abacha in the background acting as
umpires makes it difficult not to believe former Police
PRO, Superintendent Alozie Ogugbuaja’s widely reported
swipe at the Nigerian military back in 1986. He had
alleged that the military did nothing at their officers’
mess other than drink beer, eat pepper soup and plan
coups.
The picture may
also suggest that in addition to the ‘officers mess
pepper-soup coup plotting theory’, the military (ex and
serving officers) also meet at the officers’ mess to
plan their strategies for dominating governance in
Nigeria.
Is it any
coincidence that three of the characters in the picture
(Babangida, Abacha and Obasanjo) have ruled Nigeria for
the past 30 years and by every indication are bent on
carrying on? Surely such coincidence lend credence to
the several conspiracy theories making the rounds in
Nigeria, some of which has been well documented by Seyi
Oduyela in his
The Owners of Nigeria series and the cabal that they
are subservient to. Some conspiracy theorists have even
gone on to claim that whatever political scripts being
acted out in Nigeria’s political stage today, are
scripts written several years ago by the principal
characters in the picture. This school of thought
alludes to a sinister pact entered into by the
characters; what is not clear from such insinuations is
where the oaths were sworn to being that the Okija
shrine hadn’t yet become a major feature of Nigerian
politics at the time.
Mischief makers
claim that the principal characters involved (IBB and
OBJ) may still be seeking to cash in or make good on
bets which they may have made years ago over a game of
draught, on who will be the longest serving Head of
State in Nigeria - in or out of uniform. Political
analysts like Chigbo Ugochukwu who belong to the latter
school of thought maintain that “the thing between OBJ
and IBB is a matter of pride and honour, driven by
selfishness rather than national interests”.
Whether such
theories are true or not, the fact remains that IBB and
OBJ arguably remain the two most controversial leaders
Nigeria has ever had, and for various reasons.
The stage is now
set for another battle of the ex-generals as OBJ has
started making moves to secure a constitutional
amendment that will allow him to seek a third term
mandate, IBB himself has recently stepped out of the
shadows and has declared himself a candidate for the
2007 presidential elections. How will this battle of the
generals pan out? And of what consequences will their
fight and antics have on Nigerians who unfortunately are
the pawns in their political draught games?
Sunny Ogbu, an
Abuja based entrepreneur says that “as far as the battle
of the generals go, the OBJ/Buhari electoral fight in
2003 was a mismatch and will pale in comparism to the
coming OBJ/IBB battle in 2007”, according to him, the
two generals will fight to the finish, “both being in
their twilight years, it will be a winner takes all
battle, everything or nothing”.
These indeed
must be interesting times for political scientists and
analysts in Nigeria, but it may seem that just like the
proverb that says “the grass suffers when two elephants
fight”, it is the Nigerian people that will suffer the
consequences of such political manoeuvres.
An analysis of
the stratagem of the two generals may be necessary here,
as they may be good indicators of which of the two
candidates may likely come out tops come 2007. My
premise after surveying the current political landscape
in Nigeria is that there seems to be no other serious
candidate that may challenge IBB and OBJ and seriously
upset their plans, the reasons being that party politics
in Nigeria is a high stakes affair (money politics), to
run a presidential campaign will require limitless
budget and political structures that only an IBB or an
OBJ could afford. The reasons being that both have ruled
Nigeria during periods of oil boom, occasioned by the
Middle East crises and have thus benefited from
unfettered access to national treasury.
Even IBB himself
subtly acknowledged this fact while answering questions
about his chances in the impending battle for Nigeria’s
presidency, “it is not easy to defeat an incumbent but
it is not impossible” he said, thus rating his chances
of succeeding OBJ highly. Obviously aware that OBJ has
not yet declared any vacancy in Aso Rock, IBB pitched
his campaign on the side of the people saying that his
major preoccupation was to “wake the consciousness of
Nigerians in the months to come, so as to make them
defend their votes”.
An anonymous
respondent to my questions in the course of researching
this article says that Nigerians should discount any
moves being made by Vice President Atiku, Muhammed Buba
Marwa, Ahmed Sani Yerima
and other Presidential hopefuls from Northern
Nigeria, according to him ‘There is a northern agenda
Nigerians don’t know; Atiku and the rest may just be
diversionary tactics for a wider agenda. The difference
between the northerners and the southerners is that the
northerners could easily unite and work towards
actualising a common agenda, whereas greed, selfishness,
in-fighting and other bickering make any such unity and
alignment of goals impossible amongst southern
politicians’.
The respondent
who is also a keen observer of Northern politics within
a broader Nigerian political landscape cited the cases
of the reported bust-up between Andy Ubah and his
brother Chris Ubah over Andy Ubah’s gubernatorial
ambitions in Anambra state, and also the back biting and
lack of unified position in the Senate post -1999
elections, over the nomination of a senate president
between Evans Enwerem, Chuba Okadigbo, Pius Anyim, Jim
Nwobodo, Arthur Nzeribe and Ike Nwachukwu.
“That goes to
show the extent of the problem with southern
politicians” he says. “When even two blood brothers can
not agree to work together and pool together their
influence and resources to achieve success at state
gubernatorial elections”.
This
respondent’s position is not any different from that of
Prof. Ihechukwu Madubuike, the former Health Minister
who in his 2001 paper
Incongruencies in Modern Igbo Politics lamented
thus: “At the state level the same antiphonic
relationship has been at play. When it is not Nnamani
and Jim, it is Anyim and Egwu or Mbadinuju and Emeka
Offor, or still Orji Uzor Kalu and Ojo Maduekwe, et al.
Yet a little
circumspection, a little display of the spirit of give
and take here and there, a little regard for the image
of Ndiigbo, a consensus of some form, would have spared
Ndiigbo the current spectacle of shame and the derision
of our compatriots who see us as a people who cannot put
their home in order.
A symphony of
talents, a congruence of ideas and abilities, would
extirpate political collusions and enhance political
consensus for our common good. It will enable us to
channel our abundant energies into more creative
enterprises and solutions. It would help us to
syndicate and synchronize (Okadigbo). The "carrot
and stick" principle will always be at work, but that is
not a good enough excuse for ethnic infidelity”.
While such
ethnic disunity or infidelity is not common only to
Ndigbo, it may seem therefore that successive
governments in Nigeria have always exploited it to their
advantage, especially OBJ and IBB who seemed to have
perfected the divide and rule ideology, which in a way
is in line with the survivalist theories of Sun Tzu and
Machiavelli.
IBB does appear
to be a better strategist here though, OBJ is widely
reported to have very few loyal friends, allegedly his
main reasons for wanting to stay on is not because he
wants to complete his reform programs, according to an
anonymous Abuja based politician and an Aso Rock insider
“Baba is afraid of his life, he has stepped on so many
toes and so wants to use the machinery of the state to
protect himself till his God calls him”.
Compared to IBB,
OBJ is widely reported to have crude manners, he is
known to have openly verbally abused people that may
disagree with him, he has also been reported to have
maltreated journalists in the past including physically
assaulting them by flogging them at his Otta farm. Some
analysts wonder how he is able to pull off his many
diplomatic coups at the international stage for a man
that lacks finesse.
IBB on the other
hand seems to have more panache, though veiled in evil.
He knows how to build bridges and how to get even his
worst enemies to his side. Examples that may come to
mind here are Tai Solarin who was ‘settled’ with a
Chairmanship position at the defunct Peoples Bank to
calm him down. That still didn’t stop IBB and his
security operatives from shaming Tai Solarin on national
television (NTA) in the now infamous
Ebony magazine affair.
Also Wole
Soyinka was appointed the Chairman of the Federal Road
Safety Commission, an organisation that the Nobel
laureate turned into a ‘private army’ by recruiting only
members of the
National Association of Seadogs (The Pyrates
Confraternity), an organisation that he founded in the
1960s. Also, in the spirit of self-preservation, IBB was
reported to have bribed junior army officers during his
regime (to placate them from planning coups against him)
with the gifts of cars, cash and promotions. This
probably must have been one of the reasons why Augustine
Avwode, the Assistant Editor of the Lagos based Daily
Independent newspaper remarked thus – “IBB is seen
as the face of the maverick Nigerian politician. He is
seen as representative of all that is wrong with
Nigeria”.
Max Gbanite, a
self- styled IBB loyalist would not be surprised if IBB
eventually comes into power again. In his essay
IBB: The man is still standing, he argues that IBB
“does not and has never claimed to be an angel or a
saint. All he wants to do is to be an instrument of
change.Babangida is a thoroughbred revolutionalist and
quintessential Nigerian, and his Nigerianess is
unquestionable.
This man’s
approach to issues is determined by the intellectuals
that surround his environment and the quality of books
found in his library. He truly understands that in
leadership, consensus sometimes is not the best. His
style of leadership is consistent with Dennis A. Peer’s
statement, “One measure of leadership is the calibre of
people who choose to follow you.”
Therefore, it is
not by coincidence that the likes of Honourable Clement
Akpamgbo (SAN), Prince Bola Ajibola (SAN), General
Akinrinade, Prof. Wole Soyinka, (Nobel Laureate), Dr.
Tai Solarin (of blessed memory), Prof. Jibril Aminu
(former Oil Minister, immediate-past Nigerian Ambassador
to the US, and currently a senator of the Federal
Republic of Nigeria), Dr. Chu S. P. Okongwu, Chief Olu
Falae, Prof. Tam David-West, Chief Alex Akinyele, Chief
Onabule and many others all of whom are erudite in their
chosen professions and attended the best schools in the
world, and are considered primus inter pares by
their colleagues, accepted to serve with the man.
If Nigeria’s
political and economic reformation project has failed,
then it is prudent to call these mentioned personalities
to explain what advice they gave, what was implemented,
and what was not implemented”.
What Mr. Gbanite
failed to mention in his analysis is that IBB also
stocks the books of Machiavelli and the likes in his
library, also his statement that IBB has never claimed
to be a saint in a way is also an indirect endorsement
of IBB’s ‘evil genius’ political status.
E. Terfa Ula –
Lisa, an American based public analyst however
disagrees, in
Politics, Power and Government, he writes that
“Those rented crowds who want IBB, the person they
perceive to be the best manager of the commonwealth, to
be president should first prove their selfless love of
country by convincing us they have no personal benefit
in the event of an IBB government.
It is okay for
IBB to be likeable to his admirers, even the devil took
away a third of the angelic hosts and he still deceives
the majority of mankind. IBB is not qualified to be my
president because he lacks vision, his past antecedents
do not recommend him to high office; he lacks integrity
and forthrightness; he is not straight-forward. He is
too clever by half. He has dribbled too often just to
show off and has scored an own goal”.
Although IBB is
a reported disciple of Machiavellian principles, OBJ
however seems to be a later day convert and disciple.
Both seem to be following the tenets set out in
Niccolo Machiavelli’s seminal work – The Prince
that “The bold would succeed better than the
hesitant”, according to Machiavelli, “fortune was
a woman and favoured those bold enough to treat her
roughly”. IBB rough rode Nigerians for years and
kept on shifting the political goal post until 1993 when
he decided to
‘step aside’.
OBJ as well is
on the same plane having been emboldened by the lack of
serious opposition, and the willing accomplices he found
in some members of the national assembly, now he wants
to have a go at a third term. Both men are following
Machiavellian principles to the letter, he wrote that
“men had fixed characters: brave or cowardly, bold or
hesitant, sometimes circumstances might favour one style
of action, sometimes another”.
OBJ seems to
have gone a step further, by burrowing into the ancient
Chinese philosophy of
Sun Tzu who said that “victory can be crafted
even if the enemy is numerous”. PDP successfully did
this in 1999 and in 2003. They were declared the winners
of the presidential elections although independent
observers reported large scale manipulations and
electoral fraud.
OBJ and the PDP
may have found consolation in the words of
Carl von Clausewitz, who wrote in his book On War
that “A great battle has never at any time been an
unprepared, unexpected, blind routine service, but a
grand act, which partly of itself and partly from the
aim of the commander, stands out from amongst the mass
of ordinary efforts”.
A combination of
Clausewitz’s and the Machiavellian theory that ‘the
Prince must employ any tactics, even vicious ones,
needed to ensure his control over the state” may
therefore seem enough justification for OBJ and the PDP
of their actions. Notable incidents during Obasanjo’s
government which reflect such thinking include the Odi
and Zaki Biam massacres, the Audu Ogbe saga and the
Abubakar Atiku affair. IBB also still has the deaths of
Mamman Vatsa and Dele Giwa hanging over his head.
OBJ has
perfected this tactics; in most cases using the
apparatus of state such as the EFCC to witch-hunt
political opponents, from a long list will include the
likes of Prof. Fabian Osuji, Governor Joshua Dariye,
DSP
Alamiesegha, Tafa Balogun etc. Orji Kalu’s SLOK
business Empire was also dealt a huge blow with the
revocation of SLOK Airline’s operating license. Kalu the
enfant terrible has been a strong critic of OBJ and his
government and even wants to run for President in 2007,
a position that the incumbent still cherishes so much.
In
contradiction, both OBJ and IBB seemed to have missed
the section where Machiavelli cautioned that “it cannot
be called prowess to kill fellow citizens, to betray
friends, to be treacherous, pitiless, irreligious. These
ways can win a prince power but not glory”. In
continuation, he advices that “it is necessary for a
prince to have the friendship of the people; otherwise
he has no remedy in times of adversity”. OBJ obviously
no longer enjoys the friendship of the Nigerian people
and may just sooner than later find out that he has no
one watching his back if he goes ahead with his plans
for a third term.
IBB on the other
hand boasts that he is in touch with the mood of the
Nigerian people and by implication enjoys their
friendship. In a recent statement while declaring his
presidential ambition, he said: “Having been born and
bred in this country, I have a working knowledge of the
Nigerian’s mind., what he thinks, how he thinks and what
he is likely going to do; and I am fortunate there is no
doubt about it”.
Are these empty
boasts? Not really, especially considering the nature of
this political animal. According to Sun Tzu “A great
general establishes his position where he cannot be
defeated. He misses no opportunity to exploit the
weakness of his enemy. A winning general creates the
conditions of victory before beginning the war”.
IBB obviously
knows OBJ inside out, and having bided his time long
enough has now stepped into the political arena, after
his reported ‘stepping aside’ post – Abiola and June 12th,
many politicians obviously owe him favours and he sure
would want to cash them in now. According to Mike
Ikhariale, “many people still go to him (IBB) for money
and he is reputed to be very generous and anyone that
seeks his favour gets it without too many hassles. That
sets him apart from the rest of the pack. And in a
society that is as poor as ours, it is obvious that many
people would continue to sing his praises even if, deep
in their minds, they actually hold him in utter
contempt”.
In this case,
Machiavelli’s words here may be sweet music to IBB’s
ears, he says that “when a prince has the goodwill of
the people he must not worry about conspiracies” and
that “men are won over by the present far more than by
the past; and when they decide that what is being done
here and now is good, they content themselves with that
and do not go looking for anything else”.
Could Nigerians
have forgotten June 12th, Dele Giwa, SAP and
all the other socio-economic issues that bedevilled
IBB’s government? Maybe not, already anti-IBB groups are
springing up all over the world, at the same rate as the
anti- OBJ 3rd term groups. There is an
Against Babangida website showing that Nigerians are
not just folding their hands.
To be
continued * * * *
*
Uche
Nworah is a freelance writer and would wish to interview
Africans who are excelling in their professions either in Africa
or in the Diaspora, the stories of such unsung heroes can be an
inspiration for us all. Do you know of anybody? Please email
their details to
uchenworah@yahoo.com
posted 19 April 2006 |
